Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-16 43.690193 47.933997 52.652329 58.336672 65.067028 72.870369 82.736679
2025-02-23 37.072946 42.498173 48.990341 57.502358 68.644107 83.165952 104.343074
2025-03-02 32.992085 38.834086 46.149879 56.283522 70.495833 90.691021 123.739434
2025-03-09 30.262925 36.338816 44.216895 55.615365 72.541426 98.479367 145.804716
2025-03-16 27.663931 33.675400 41.660614 53.578606 72.037271 102.019439 161.859137
2025-03-23 26.846856 33.255436 42.037649 55.694787 78.100436 117.659596 208.369385
2025-03-30 25.440641 31.883324 40.900481 55.328008 79.994042 126.362859 245.473730
2025-04-06 24.102250 30.490993 39.587071 54.487377 80.867683 133.276243 283.211184
2025-04-13 22.624803 28.797378 37.684762 52.472327 79.279457 134.629324 306.168792
2025-04-20 22.242334 28.648384 38.076331 54.257558 85.036341 153.986696 411.033781
2025-04-27 21.802733 28.377133 38.243214 55.659603 90.311832 174.440156 560.411896
2025-05-04 21.256970 27.907140 38.050502 56.389387 94.338377 193.531603 760.464515
2025-05-11 20.471699 27.058730 37.235270 55.988886 96.063101 207.643241 1000.397081
2025-05-18 19.669500 26.145680 36.259028 55.200844 96.818986 219.482359 1313.447052
2025-05-25 18.870474 25.195511 35.157197 54.058417 96.537112 227.874861 1690.707417
2025-06-01 18.227802 24.457685 34.362708 53.431761 97.406528 241.265129 2432.352348
2025-06-08 17.408517 23.405889 32.978580 51.519758 94.744028 239.643158 2825.763394
2025-06-15 17.304352 23.481124 33.517298 53.506264 102.547034 287.976941 11110.316363
2025-06-22 16.829421 22.937907 32.948889 53.162166 104.042010 309.197517 51703.559207
2025-06-29 16.316581 22.311998 32.200788 52.373193 104.151727 323.816203 NaN
2025-07-06 15.666113 21.439436 30.976614 50.480123 100.780916 316.895903 NaN
2025-07-13 15.583838 21.491067 31.397494 52.157418 108.316155 383.924933 NaN
2025-07-20 15.448074 21.446830 31.640585 53.473260 115.181099 461.240668 NaN